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maxcriden · Apr 28, 2016

Nintendo's fiscal year 2015 results came out and predictably, investors aren't happy. Stock has dropped 8% since the announcement. Now a handful of analysts have come together to discuss the results, Nintendo's mobile plans and Nintendo's goal to make NX a success.

Investors are not going to like that. With the titles coming later in the year, earnings for the first half dont look so good. And people who expected NX to launch this year will also be disappointed. - Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Ace Research Institute in Tokyo

If Mario is available on smartphones, then why buy into the closed world of Nintendo handheld gaming?. Nintendo is going to delay releasing a Mario smartphone game until proven that its the only way to monetize its key intellectual properties on mobile. - Pelham Smithers

Given market hopes that as its famous characters will slowly be imported in games targeting smartphones, we believe its poor forecasts might be ignored. NX will also keep some investors hoping for a gradual recovery. - Amir Anvarzadeh, manager of Japanese equity sales at BGC Partners Inc.

"Big picture: the NX is critical to the long term success of Nintendo,. Nintendo needs to rebound with the NX to remain a relevant platform holder over the next five years. The challenge is that the roadmap for a successful Nintendo console is unclear. The market is limited for a third HD console on which the main USP is Nintendo IP, and motion [controlled] gaming has evolved from a fad in mainstream entertainment into a niche. Finding the market need for a third console will be a challenge, and thus far very little is known about how the NX will accomplish this." - Patrick Walker, EEDAR's VP of insights and analytics

"The company may be taking the additional time to properly prepare for the NX launch and to maximise the quality of upcoming major franchises like Zelda as well. This may cause some investors anxiety, but we'll see whether it was worth the wait. Nintendo should be working on the NX library and manufacturing pipeline to make certain that the launch is smooth, with sufficient supply, and that the library will be sufficient to drive demand." - Billy Pidgeon, an independent analyst

"It's a bit of a half-step approach, but it's understandable since Nintendo's console business has to be focused on making the NX a success at this point. The Wii U didn't meet expectations, and I don't blame Nintendo for shifting gears and trying to come as strongly out of the gate with NX as possible. Having a great Zelda title on day one will help. Yes, the Wii U catalog is looking thin this holiday, but at this point I think Nintendo and everyone else can see the handwriting on the wall and it is pivoting towards whetting the appetite of its faithful fans for the NX." - IDC Research director Lewis Ward

"Scheduling a hardware launch so late in the [fiscal] year and excluding any NX sales from guidance suggests a lack of confidence that the device will actually launch in FY17. It is important to note that a March launch provides Nintendo with wiggle room to delay, as it's still likely to launch well ahead of the key holiday season." - Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter

"Historically, Nintendo has been in control of most of the value chain, integrating both hardware and software into a single ecosystem, but now that situation has changed. For one, digital distribution takes up almost one-fifth of software revenue (19%), and continues to grow year-over-year. In addition, its success with new revenue streams like the amiibo is growing, even as US sales for the toys-to-life category have started to flatten out. That provides necessary income in the midst of a volatile period, but it cannot cover the whole. Nintendo's international success - with Fire Emblem selling more outside of Japan (1.06M units compared to 780K) - has a greater exposure to currency fluctuations. And, finally, both of its key titles, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing, were initially conceived as console titles but have found their greatest degree of success on handhelds. It shows that the games industry is, in fact, so volatile that even a powerhouse like Nintendo is not impervious to it. Nintendo's current game plan is likely to provide enough runway to develop a full strategy and rollout that capitalises on the current market changes. The thing to remember about Nintendo is to never count it out." - SuperData's Joost van Dreunen

Via:
http://gonintendo.com/stories/256790-nintendo-stock-drops-8-analysts-react-to-mobile-plans-nx-goals
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...-for-a-successful-nintendo-console-is-unclear
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-without-mario-for-phones-or-new-game-device

Jawmuncher · Apr 28, 2016

Expected. Nintendo basically went "just wait and give us some more time" during that call.

Acquiescence · Apr 28, 2016

Nintendo is doomed.

Mashing · Apr 28, 2016

Stock always drops on news. Nothing new here.

Nirolak · Apr 28, 2016

That's a pretty soft drop all things considered. I agree with the person who feels the mobile news softened the blow.

JazzmanZ · Apr 28, 2016

I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

Shaanyboi · Apr 28, 2016

Shocked.

I'm not shocked.

oti · Apr 28, 2016

Now imagine if Nintendo wasn't already on Smart Devices. Things would have gotten ugly.

Jawmuncher · Apr 28, 2016

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

Well there is Pokemon so it won't be too bad.

SinCityAssassin · Apr 28, 2016

EXPECTED.

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

Because they heard the words "Mobile games" and "Fall 2016". That staved them off.

Astral Dog · Apr 28, 2016

What plans?

NimbusD · Apr 28, 2016

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

I mean, even if they had a strong holiday, would that change much? A strong holiday for the Wii U is not exactly going to put it in the black.

BY2K · Apr 28, 2016

8% is not that big and it's probably thanks to smartphone games.

We'll have to see if the NX is worth the wait indeed.

Ridley327 · Apr 28, 2016

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

They've got Pokemon on the 3DS and mobile titles based on two of their most popular recent IPs on the way. They should be OK, if not exactly soaring in the skies.

TheOfficeMut · Apr 28, 2016

Nintendo pulling a Square with the "please be excited."

Dirk Benedict · Apr 28, 2016

Reactionary drop. Happens all the time.

TheOfficeMut said:
Nintendo pulling a Square with the "please be excited."

My laugh echoes.

skypunch · Apr 28, 2016

A part of me thinks it's too late for Nintendo to bounce back in the console market.

NOLA_Gaffer · Apr 28, 2016

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

Isn't it a bit too early to call it weak? Typically Nintendo announces their holiday software later in the year.

dark10x · Apr 28, 2016

JazzmanZ said:
I'm surprised some Analysts are ok with the weak Nintendo holiday this year.

I mean, what else could they do? Clearly they don't have anything ready to go. They're rebuilding.

Josh5890 · Apr 28, 2016

8% isn't the worst thing. If it was 30% then you could start to worry.

crooked spin · Apr 28, 2016

Pachter's quote makes me a little nervous...

maxcriden · Apr 28, 2016

NOLA_Gaffer said:
Isn't it a bit too early to call it weak? Typically Nintendo announces their holiday software later in the year.

Perhaps there is an unannounced game or two for 3DS still to come this year, but since Kimi-san said specifically there are unannounced FP games in existence for 3DS and didn't say this about Wii U (at the meeting last night), I'm skeptical we will see more than Paper Mario for Wii U this holiday. But I agree we will get at least one unannounced 3DS game.

Dimitri LH · Apr 28, 2016

Im sure it will rise once we get more info on the NX and future games.

platina · Apr 28, 2016

Not that shocking tbh lol...

Interfectum · Apr 28, 2016

Everyone waiting to see what happens with the next two smartphone games. If they are duds then we could start seeing bigger drops.

BD1 · Apr 28, 2016

Jawmuncher said:
Expected. Nintendo basically went "just wait and give us some more time" during that call.

Pretty much, but now they have to deliver something very big with NX. Delight, surprise, yada yada.

Lots of pressure on them now.

ArkkAngel007 · Apr 28, 2016

Hardware announcements usually cause drops, and this one is rather soft from what would be expected.

Edit: Beaten like the Wii U and its ports

BGBW · Apr 28, 2016

For all those complaining there's nothing to buy, look you can buy some Nintendo shares!

Cathcart · Apr 28, 2016

They should just go third party.

perfectchaos007 · Apr 28, 2016

Nirolak said:
That's a pretty soft drop all things considered. I agree with the person who feels the mobile news softened the blow.

My sentiments exactly. I was expecting a near 20% drop after that conference. I bet a lot of investors don't actually believe NX will be released in March. Investor confidence of Nintendo continues to fall

daxgame · Apr 28, 2016

Buy time again coming very soon.

Justified · Apr 28, 2016

I guess mobile keep this from being worst.

Also OP can you put spaces between the qoutes for some readability?

NOLA_Gaffer · Apr 28, 2016

maxcriden said:
Perhaps there is an unannounced game or two for 3DS still to come this year, but since Kimi-san said specifically there are unannounced FP games in existence for 3DS and didn't say this about Wii U (at the meeting last night), I'm skeptical we will see more than Paper Mario for Wii U this holiday. But I agree we will get at least one unannounced 3DS game.

I mean I'm not expecting anything massive but I doubt Nintendo will go from October to the end of December without at least one retail Wii U game.

Sandfox · Apr 28, 2016

I'm optimistic about FE and AC translating and await more news.

BD1 said:
Pretty much, but now they have to deliver something very big with NX. Delight, surprise, yada yada.

Lots of pressure on them now.

I would imagine that was true before.

NOLA_Gaffer said:
I mean I'm not expecting anything massive but I doubt Nintendo will go from October to the end of December without at least one retail Wii U game.

I'm expecting them to just drop game prices and push what they already have for the most part.

maxcriden · Apr 28, 2016

NOLA_Gaffer said:
I mean I'm not expecting anything massive but I doubt Nintendo will go from October to the end of December without at least one retail Wii U game.

Right, I agree. That one will be Paper Mario. Maybe they'll do more Wii U Selects. But I think Trev's leak showed there are more 3DS Selects coming and a 3DS price cut (this Holiday).

Milly Osworth · Apr 28, 2016

8% closer to doooooooom.

I expected a bigger drop too. As an investor I would definitely bail out after this meeting.

Anarky · Apr 28, 2016

Cathcart said:
They should just go third party.

(Sigh)

Vyse The Legend · Apr 28, 2016

crooked spin said:
Pachter's quote makes me a little nervous...

Nervous, why? That's largely what people are speculating will happen: a delay well into 2017.

The move to March 2017 reaks of trying to prevent investors from completely freaking out in the short term, because the forecast for Nintendo in 2016 is almost assuredly very, very bleak without an NX/hardware bump.

Hasney · Apr 28, 2016

BGBW said:
For all those complaining there's nothing to buy, look you can buy some Nintendo shares!

Before Animal Crossing Free To Play comes out... I'm tempted.

If goddamn Miitomo can make any money, Tom Nook is going to gouge those whales.

Bitch Pudding · Apr 28, 2016

Retro4ever said:
8% isn't the worst thing. If it was 30% then you could start to worry.

Well, plenty enough time to drop some more until NX arrives... Hope their mobile apps do the trick.

georly · Apr 28, 2016

Wow, way better than expected. Praise investor's overappreciation of mobile games.

I'm seriously considering in buying some nintendo stocks (mostly for fun). Wonder if it'll go any lower soon or if I should go ahead and bite.

Seik · Apr 28, 2016

Usual stuff, didn't Sony's stock dropped as well when the PS4 was announced?

ethomaz · Apr 28, 2016

To be fair everything about NX and how Nintendo is handling the the questions around the new console is letdown.

The worst way to release/talk/announce a new hardware.

Sorry Kotaku's articles trying to defense control saying what Nintend is doing is good... it is not.

georly · Apr 28, 2016

ethomaz said:
To be fair everything about NX and how Nintendo is handling the the questions around the new console is letdown.

The worst way to release/talk/announce a new hardware.

They clearly weren't ready (and won't be ready in june) to announce anything about NX. I'm sure nintendo didn't want this to happen either.

orioto · Apr 28, 2016

I would almost hope it drops a lot and Nintendo has to communicate more on the NX. Their silence is not helping honestly. Just create some hype already...

geordiemp · Apr 28, 2016

crooked spin said:
Pachter's quote makes me a little nervous...

He is smarter than people on here give him credit for, his comment is most insightful.

Not including any Nx sales in financial year allows them to slip....did not think of that

protomouse · Apr 28, 2016

Not that bad tbh.

Cathcart said:
They should just go third party.

Like clockwork.

Bolivar687 · Apr 28, 2016

Retro4ever said:
8% isn't the worst thing. If it was 30% then you could start to worry.

Dirk Benedict said:
Reactionary drop. Happens all the time.

BY2K said:
8% is not that big

Nirolak said:
That's a pretty soft drop all things considered.

Mashing said:
Stock always drops on news. Nothing new here.

platina said:
Not that shocking tbh lol...

georly said:
Wow, way better than expected.

Seik said:
Usual stuff, didn't Sony's stock dropped as well when the PS4 was announced?

protomouse said:
Not that bad tbh.

naked-gun-nothing-to-see-here-reaction-frank-drebin-police-squad-13911001861.gif.cf.gif

RPGCrazied · Apr 28, 2016

I really will feel bummed if Zelda U turns out to be no good. I do have faith though, the mainline games have been steller, yes, even Skyward Sword. Don't think they would screw with one of their flagship titles.

Vigilant Walrus · Apr 28, 2016

I hope they would go third party so more people can enjoy their games. Smash Brothers on Steam would be amazing. Dedicated to making fun games is Nintendo at its best. Their hardware is not what defines them. It's what holds them back. Why?

Why is it so important that they live within their little ecosystem where only a portion of people can enjoy them. Limited by a botched online system, limited hardware and a platform that always hinges on their inability to get third parties onboard.

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